In April 2024, an event that usually happens once every four years occurred in the Bitcoin network: halving. This process reduced the reward for miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. In the crypto community, halving is considered an important trigger for a new price increase. But this time the situation is more complicated: the market has changed significantly since 2020, Bitcoin ETFs have appeared, regulators have increased their attention, and the price has already reached more than $ 60,000 even before the emission reduction. What will happen next, says financial expert Chaslau Koniukh?
“Previously, halving was almost guaranteed to trigger a bull cycle, but now many expectations are already priced into the market, ” notes financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh. “This changes the very logic of the market, but does not cancel the effect of scarcity. ”
After the halving, there are fewer new bitcoins left on the market. If demand remains at the same level and supply decreases, this creates the preconditions for growth. In 2024, the situation was aggravated by the launch of a bitcoin ETF in the United States. Trading volumes in a few months exceeded $ 10 billion. This means the arrival of new capital, including institutional capital, which was almost absent in previous cycles.
At the same time, against the backdrop of rising prices, retail has become more active. New generations of investors are considering BTC as an alternative to traditional assets, and in countries with unstable economies, as a tool for protecting against inflation.
“In many countries, Bitcoin is replacing gold. It is mobile, limited in circulation, and does not require trust in the government,” Koniukh adds. “This makes it a universal asset for an unstable world.”
But the market is not only growing. It is evolving. New applications are emerging: asset tokenization, NFTs on the Bitcoin network (Ordinals), and experiments with the Lightning Network. All these factors support demand for BTC regardless of price dynamics.
Miners, Hashrate, and Centralization
For miners, halving is a challenge. Their income has fallen by half, while energy costs remain high. This means that small players may not be able to withstand the competition. Already, the hash rate is increasingly concentrated in the hands of large public companies that have access to cheap electricity and capital.
This is not necessarily a negative, but there is a risk of centralization of the network. If five companies control more than 50% of the computing power, this creates new challenges-particularly regarding security, transparency, and decentralization, which is the main idea of Bitcoin.
With the reward decreasing, transaction fees are becoming more important. Although they currently only cover a portion of miners’ expenses, in the future, fees will likely become the main source of income. This is another stage in the maturation of the ecosystem: Bitcoin is moving from a subsidy model to a market economy.
“Miners are economic players. They adapt or leave. This is normal for a mature market, ” Koniukh emphasizes.
Volatility, Forecasts, and the New Reality
Despite the halving, the market has not shown explosive growth – the price of bitcoin fluctuates around $88,000. Bitfinex analysts predict a growth of 160% within 12-14 months, while JPMorgan talks about a possible correction to $42,000. This indicates that the market is in a phase of uncertainty: positive expectations collide with macroeconomic risks.
These include the Fed’s policies, the possible escalation of geopolitics, and regulatory pressure in the US. For example, the SEC has not yet decided on a clear classification for many crypto assets. And in Europe, the MiCA framework has already been launched, which means a transition to formal regulation.
“2024 was a test of resilience. Halving is a trigger, but not a guarantee. Players need to think strategically, not emotionally,” says Koniukh. “The market is maturing. And that’s good.”
In addition to price dynamics, it is also worth considering the changing nature of the crypto market itself. Its participants have become more demanding of the quality of information, analytics, and sources. This means that the media, influencers, and even bank analysts are gradually moving away from simplified assessments like “bitcoin will grow because of halving” and moving towards systemic analysis.
Another trend is the gradual stratification of the crypto industry. Conventionally speaking, the market is divided into the “institutional” part, where ETFs, trust funds, and regulated exchanges operate, and the “alternative” part – DeFi, NFT, DAO, and other experimental forms. And although these segments often do not intersect, Bitcoin remains the only point of contact. It is needed by both.
ESG – environmental impact deserves special attention. After criticism in 2021-2022, the Bitcoin community has made significant steps towards switching to “green” mining equipment. In some regions, the share of renewable sources in providing electricity for mining already exceeds 60%. This changes the perception of cryptocurrencies as “harmful” and allows them to be more easily integrated into the financial system.
Geographical shifts should also be taken into account. Asia is increasingly becoming the center of crypto innovation. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan are countries where Bitcoin is no longer just a “tech asset, ” but part of the financial strategies of governments and corporations. China is still on the sidelines, but given its resources, it could quickly return to the game.
At the same time, cryptocurrencies are still a subject of political debate in the US, which demonstrates the importance of the sector for future economic development.
Finally, it is worth considering behavioral factors. People increasingly perceive cryptocurrencies not as a “get rich quick” but as a tool for financial autonomy. This gradually changes the tone in the media, improves the quality of educational materials, and influences investors’ demands.
In this context, Bitcoin after the halving is not just an attempt to repeat previous cycles. It is a chance to move to a qualitatively new market model. And it depends on how all participants use this chance whether the crypto ecosystem will gain real legitimacy in the 21st century.
However, even under these conditions, the main advantage of Bitcoin is its predictability. The number of coins is limited, an algorithm controls inflation, and community trust remains stable.
In conclusion, financial expert Chaslau Koniukh noted that Bitcoin has already proven that it can adapt, maintain its role, and inspire new generations of investors.
